2021 New Mexico Bowl prediction, line, spread: Fresno State vs. UTEP odds, picks from model on 43-29 run

The UTEP Miners hope to end the longest postseason drought in the FBS when they take on the Fresno State Bulldogs in the New Mexico Bowl on Saturday. The Miners have the longest bowl-victory drought in major college football, with their last victory coming in the 1967 Sun Bowl and six consecutive losses since. But coach Dana Dimel told the media this week his team is embracing the opportunity to make history and is motivated by being one of the biggest underdogs on the bowl slate. Fresno State seeks its third straight bowl win and first since 2019.

Kickoff is set for 2:15 p.m. ET from University Stadium in Albuquerque, N.M. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Bulldogs as 11.5-point favorites, while the over-under for total points is set at 52.5 in the latest Fresno State vs. UTEP odds. Before locking in any 2021 New Mexico Bowl picks, make sure you check out the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,700 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters the 2021-22 college football bowl season on a 43-29 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has zeroed in on UTEP vs. Fresno State in the 2021 New Mexico Bowl and released its picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s New Mexico Bowl picks. Here are the college football odds and betting lines for Fresno State vs. UTEP: 

  • UTEP vs. Fresno State point spread: Fresno State -11.5  
  • UTEP vs. Fresno State over-under total: 52.5 points  
  • UTEP vs. Fresno State money line: Fresno State -475, UTEP +360  
  • UTEP: The Miners are 4-1 against the spread in their past five games on grass
  • FSU: The Bulldogs have covered their last four nonconference games 

Featured Game | UTEP Miners vs. Fresno State Bulldogs

Why Fresno State can cover

The Bulldogs have yet to name a starting quarterback for Saturday’s game, preventing UTEP from preparing for a specific player. Interim coach Lee Marks told the media this week that he would not declare a starter until game time, suggesting competition will remain open until the final day of practice.

Regular starter Jake Haener, who entered the transfer portal before withdrawing to stay with the Bulldogs, is eligible to play but it’s unclear if he will take the field. If he isn’t under center, the Bulldogs likely will get a glimpse of the program’s future as they turn to one of two freshmen quarterbacks who saw limited time this season.

Freshman Logan Fife went 7-of13 passing for 51 yards for one touchdown and one interception. Fellow frosh Jaylen Henderson went 5-of-8 for 49 yards with no touchdowns and zero interceptions. Henderson has contributed in the run game with 68 yards on 14 carries.

Why UTEP can cover

The Miners (7-5) stumbled down the stretch with losses in four of their final five games, though two of those defeats came by exactly three points. The program used a collection of transfers and experienced veterans to put together their first winning season under fourth-year coach Dana Dimel.

Dimel’s previous head coaching stops include Houston and Wyoming, where he led the Cowboys to three winning seasons. He went 1-11 in his first two seasons at UTEP but the administration’s patience paid off in the form of the program’s first winning seasons in seven years. The Miners are known for having a loyal fan base regardless of their record and they should have something of a home-field advantage in the 2021 New Mexico Bowl as the venue is just about a four-hour drive from their home base in El Paso, Texas. 

How to make 2021 New Mexico Bowl picks  

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 56 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 60 percent of simulations. You can only get the model’s New Mexico Bowl 2021 pick at SportsLine

So who wins UTEP vs. Fresno State in the 2021 New Mexico Bowl? And which side of the spread hits in over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on Saturday, all from the model that has crushed its college football picks, and find out. 

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